The All-Star break is almost over and the MLB trade deadline is just two weeks away (as of Thursday). Since the Rafael Devers blockbuster on June 15, the trade market has been slow with only a couple mid-level deals (Bryan Baker to Tampa Bay, Adam Frazier to Kansas City) going down.
That, of course, will change in the coming weeks with front offices now able to focus their attention solely on deals (and not the now-completed MLB Draft).
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow should be busy in the next 14 days and after a 10-game winning streak vaulted Boston into contender status, it’s seen as a lock that Breslow will buy
.
Here’s what we’re hearing — broken down into five ways Breslow might deal in the next two weeks — at this point:
1) Rotation need remains the biggest
Breslow, similarly to how he approached the winter, has preached the importance of adding “an impact starter” before July 31. Anyone who has an expectation that a No. 2 option is a guarantee should re-set their expectations, however.
The Red Sox think the trio of Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito is playoff-caliber, especially after Bello and Giolito showed they can dominate for a prolonged stretch. Therefore, any type of rotation add is on the table, especially in the wake of Hunter Dobbins’ season-ending ACL injury.
A high-value running mate for Crochet
like Minnesota’s Joe Ryan looks great on paper
but the asking price will be insane (much more than just Jarren Duran). The guess here is that the Red Sox, while willing to push for controllable options, instead find the market to be prohibitive and push for a high-floor rental. With Crochet, Bello, Giolito (most likely), Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Tanner Houck and Kyle Harrison all controlled past this year, the Red Sox don’t have to rush into another long-term rotation add.
Luckily for Breslow, there’s talent to be found on the rental market. Arizona’s Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, Kansas City’s Seth Lugo, Baltimore’s Charlie Morton and Pittsburgh’s Andrew Heaney would all help the group while not breaking the bank.
It’s fun to speculate on controllable options like Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, Mitch Keller and Edward Cabrera but look no further than the Crochet situation to see how these things play out. Sellers are smart to keep those guys into the winter and then create a bidding war.
2) Don’t count out a big bat
The Red Sox’ offense has been good for a prolonged stretch and is expected to be better with Alex Bregman and Masataka Yoshida both back in the mix. That doesn’t mean the club is all set when it comes to lineup production.
The current group, sans Devers, lacks a little bit of pop, so a reinforcement is still on the table. Breslow isn’t going to add an outfielder. He’s not touching third base, shortstop or second. So any acquisition better be able to play first base.
Obvious options include Orioles All-Star Ryan O’Hearn (a rental), Washington’s Nathaniel Lowe (controlled through 2026) and Arizona’s Josh Naylor (another rental). But there’s a chance Boston’s recent surge could open up another big opportunity for them to add in an unforeseen way.
The Red Sox hurt the Rays’ playoff chances by sweeping them in a four-game set before the break and are now 2½ games above Tampa Bay, which seemed — entering the last week — like it would be a cautious buyer. But if the Rays do what they always do, and trade players getting close to free agency, someone like Yandy Díaz could be available.
If he is, sources indicate, he’d be high on the wish list of some Red Sox decision-makers
.
Díaz has steady pop, as evidenced by his 14 pre-break homers, and could get a little rich for the Rays’ blood as he’s earning $10 million this year and $12 million in 2026 before a vesting option kicks in for 2027. The Rays are always willing to deal players as they get close to free agency and could do the same here. One potential factor working against that theory? Industry insiders who know the Rays well wonder if they’ll try to contend one last time under the helm of owner Stu Sternberg before his $1.7 billion sale to Jacksonville developer Patrick Zalupski goes through this fall.
The Red Sox know Triston Casas’ return to being a lineup force isn’t a sure thing considering the severity of his knee injury. They’re not ruling out controllable adds at first base — or 100% committed to adding there considering how good the Abraham Toro/Romy Gonzalez platoon has been. Everything’s on the table.
3) Is the outfield problem really a problem?
It’s easy for armchair GMs (and yes, those of us who cover the team) to look at the crowded outfield mix and assume a trade is a
fait accompli
. Long-term, it surely is. But for a team that wants to make a playoff push, is the club better or worse without Duran or Wilyer Abreu on the club?
Worse, for sure, assuming that a magical deal for a big league starter doesn’t come together before the 31st. There’s a very slim chance someone in the Duran-Abreu-Ceddanne Rafaela-Roman Anthony group doesn’t get hurt by the end of the season and therefore the Red Sox can enjoy the luxury of the depth they’ve amassed for a two-month stretch. And while they’re playing on an every-game-matters basis, having a proven big-leaguer as a pinch-hitting option is something any manager would sign off on.
The Red Sox wanted to move on from Devers and were going to take the best offer if it made sense for them. The situation with the outfielders is different. There’s a real case to be made that waiting until the offseason, when all 30 teams are theoretical contenders and willing to get creative, makes the most sense. There won’t be a deal for the sake of making a deal here.
4) Dobbins’ injury increases the need for a bullpen add
On Friday, sitting in the home dugout at Fenway Park,
Breslow raved about the amount of pitching depth his club has, saying this
: “You can never have too much pitching. Some of this is, as guys get healthy, talking about Tanner and (Hunter) Dobbins and (Richard) Fitts and (Kyle) Harrison, and how do we figure out who we want to keep built out as starting pitching depth and who we think might be a weapon in a multi-inning role out of the ‘pen.”
Hours later, Dobbins tore his ACL, depleting that pool of depth and, in turn, narrowing the group of pitchers Breslow can pull from as he looks to add bullpen depth down the stretch.
It would have been conceivable, with Dobbins healthy behind Crochet, Giolito, Bello and Buehler (for now), that the Red Sox would have been willing to try out someone like Fitts, Houck or Harrison in that multi-inning relief role. Now? Fitts is in the rotation and the Sox probably need to keep the others stretched out. The trickle-down effect is real.
Boston still needs to figure out how to bridge the gap from its rotation to Aroldis Chapman in high-leverage spots
. Justin Slaten’s strange, slow recovery from shoulder inflammation — he’s back to not throwing — means he can’t be counted on for August and September. Ditto Liam Hendriks, who has experience even if he struggled while healthy. Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert and Justin Wilson have been good and the team thinks Jordan Hicks can get some leverage innings as well. But Breslow would be wise to add a veteran arm or two, and the expectation is that he will (like all contenders do). Maybe not an elite option but a level higher than the Lucas Sims/Luis García “warm body” tier from 2024. It’s always an expensive market.
5) Another year, another catching move?
Breakout star Carlos Narváez has already started 67 games this year. That’s a lot for a catcher who has never experienced such a heavy workload. There are small signs that wear and tear has taken a toll, like Cora’s desire to work Connor Wong in more and the fact Narváez has only hit .235 with a .657 OPS in an 18-game stretch dating back to June 16.
On paper, Wong should be the type of backup any team wants: someone who used to start, is still young, has improved defensively and can provide some pop when he does play. But in a much-different role (27 starts), Wong has hit .149 with a single RBI and zero extra-base hits. He has a .384 OPS in 98 plate appearances and is 5-for-36 since June 1.
Wong would likely be hitting better if he was an everyday player in a routine and he might break out again if he gets traded and gets that opportunity. For now, though, he represents an offensive black hole when he plays and a contending team may want to upgrade.
One name to watch? Old friend Christian Vázquez, who is also not hitting (.170 average, .492 OPS) but has some intangibles the Red Sox like. The Twins would probably trade him in a salary dump.
