BOSTON —
This is Alex Cora’s seventh season managing the Red Sox
. It’s also his seventh time going into the All-Star break with a team that’s at least three games over .500.
The story of Cora’s tenure in Boston since the 2018 title has been good first-half teams that, for various reasons, collapse down the stretch. In 2019, a 49-41 club at the All-Star break got hurt late and missed the playoffs with a 35-37 second-half record. In 2022, the Red Sox were 48-45 at the break, then nine games under .500 after. The 2023 season — and inactive trade deadline — saw a team go 30-41 in the second half after being 48-43 in mid-July. Last year’s bunch soared in the second week of July to 10 games above .500 at 53-43… then cratered with a 28-38 record, missing the playoffs for the third straight season.
Even the 2021 Red Sox, which won 92 games and reached the ALCS, were a much worse team in the second half (37-34) than the first (55-36), though that was in part because COVID had ravaged the roster.
In short, we’ve seen at least the first half of this movie before.
It’s now on Cora and the Red Sox to write a much different ending after rocketing into the All-Star break with a 10-game winning streak
.
When Cora and the Red Sox arrived in Washington, D.C. for a morning game on the Fourth of July, the manager, somewhat whimsically, offered a reminder that the 2018 version of the Red Sox “really took off” by playing well on Fourth of July weekend at Nationals Park and then winning 10 in a row en route to an 108-win season. He was hopeful the same thing would happen. He was rather prescient, as his team bludgeoned the lowly Nationals and Rockies before peaking in a four-game home series against the Rays, in which they won four low-scoring games.
After doing so, the Red Sox find themselves in a good spot. At 53-45, they’re in sole possession of the second wild card spot in the American League, just three games behind the Blue Jays in the AL East and have seen their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) rise from 16.7% after their last loss (on July 3) to 55.1% now.
“It’s just the conviction in who we are as a team,” said shortstop Trevor Story. “I think we have more of an identity now. We’re starting to believe in that. We can win in different ways, I think we’ve shown over this 10-gamer. We can slug or we can win one-run games. We can steal bases. We’re embracing all of that. Playing good defense is always a key part of that. But it all starts with the pitching. We’ve been lights-out.”
It’s easy to forget that a year ago, the Red Sox won 10 out of 13 heading into the break, and at 53-43, were similarly positioned as they are now in what was a better league overall. Then came a brutal trip west in which the Sox lost five of six to the Dodgers and Rockies followed by a 13-15 August. Things faded fast, as they often have in the second half of recent seasons.
There haven’t been many examples of Cora-led teams peaking late since 2018, when the club was an absolute bulldozer from late March through October. There have been relevant reasons in individual years — see poor deadlines, confusing trades and injuries — but the result has always been the same. The 2024 team was reinforced in a way the 2022 and 2023 teams were not. Still, things fell apart.
With heightened expectations this year after the winter additions of Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman, there simply can’t be another second-half collapse. If
Breslow does what he intends and makes significant additions before July 31
, a poor roster won’t be to blame. The Red Sox have weathered an early-season storm of injuries (Triston Casas and others), drama (
the Rafael Devers saga
) and inconsistency to get to this point. Now, they must ensure they don’t run out of gas.
“We were so streaky early on, too,” said Cora. “You win four, you lose four and sometimes it’s tough to come to the ballpark. But I think there’s two things: We’re young and we’re athletic and that doesn’t slump, to be honest with you.
“We’re pitching. It’s a lot different than last year.”
Cora also pointed to improved pitching depth, as well as speed and athleticism in an offense catalyzed by Jarren Duran, as reasons why the Red Sox wouldn’t fade a year ago. Then, faced with a big post-break test at Dodger Stadium, the Sox folded, losing three in a row. They’ll be similarly challenged this weekend against the Cubs, who at 57-39 are very nearly the best team in the National League. Two really good teams — the Phillies and Dodgers — will follow.
Working in the Red Sox’ favor is that many of the players they’ll rely on to keep the momentum going — including rookies Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Carlos Narváez, who Cora has challenged to “bring energy” on a daily basis — simply don’t know better.
Also working for them is that their unquestioned leader, Bregman, has seen it all and is a two-time champion
. Fading late is a disturbing recent pattern, sure. But the group on the field has changed a lot, too.
“That’s just in the past,” said Story. “That’s a big part of why we’ve been successful: We’re in the moment, we’re very present, not worried about what we did yesterday. We’ve got to show up today and win a game. I think with that mindset, it’s hard to live in the past or in the future. That’s a big part of our team and our identity.”
The Red Sox have looked like a perfect team since the Fourth of July, but they are not.
Hunter Dobbins’ season-ending injury further depleted their already diminishing rotation depth
and increased the need for Breslow to add an impact arm to pair with Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello. There are still question marks in the bullpen with Justin Slaten nowhere close to returning and Aroldis Chapman facing an inevitable period of struggle after a lights-out first half. The offense, while just fine in the post-Devers era, needs to slug more, even with Bregman back in the mix. Little things, like the pitching staff’s defense and some questionable baserunning decisions, still threaten to turn wins into losses.
The onus is on Breslow to buy big in the next couple weeks. But it’s also on Cora, a year after signing a contract that made him the second-highest paid manager in baseball history, to get the most out of his players at the most important time of year.
Everyone in the Red Sox’ clubhouse agreed that there’s no such thing as a bad time for the All-Star break to come and that the four-day respite is much-needed after 98 games. It was harder to verbalize the key to making sure those 96 hours away from the field didn’t cost any momentum.
It’s somewhat fitting, with the Red Sox playing as well as they are, that they’re first-up on the schedule when play resumes around the big leagues Friday. The traditional Friday matinee start works for this group. Why wait any longer?
“We’ve still got a long ways to go,” Cora said. “We’re happy with the stretch. We’re happy with the way we’ve been playing. I think we’ve only had one bad stretch or one bad series, the last few weeks and it was the Anaheim one. We were up in two games late in the game.
“We’re playing good defense, pitching well. We have a good baseball team.”
